4:45 PM - 5:00 PM
[ACG43-12] Caution zone quantification risk to sediment disaster adaptation due to climate change
Keywords:Probable maximum precipitation, disaster, adaptation
Heavy rainfall disaster is predicted by extermination metrological condition due to climate change. We must estimate future risk based on trend in the future. It's necessary to manage sustainable counter measures to shift smoothly from present to future. In this study, risk evaluation is obtained to apply climate model outputs. We developed high resolution landslide risk model (Saito et al, 2017), and showed risk distribution information. These risk distribution indicate to pay attend some scenario conditions (Rain condition: directly rain outputs, and probable maximum precipitation condition, Time scale: near future and future, RCP scenario: 2.6 and 8.5). Especially, this study result indicate potential risk by probable maximum precipitation. This result predict to target of upper limit to disaster mitigation. It is useful of mitigate planning at regional area. Therefore, this risk outputs target to sediment disaster caution zone. Sediment disaster caution zones set high risk area, and it is a set area to give priority to a disaster prevention measure as an area in present.
As results, it was possible to specify about 10000 points of high dangerous area. Therefore, An adaptation method to these point group was planned.
As results, it was possible to specify about 10000 points of high dangerous area. Therefore, An adaptation method to these point group was planned.