Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019

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[J] Poster

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG43] Adaptation for climate change and social implementation

Sun. May 26, 2019 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Yoichi Ishikawa(JAPAN Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Shingo Watanabe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), KOJI DAIRAKU(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)

[ACG43-P04] Future projection of forest fire frequency due to climate change in Japan by using predicted relative humidity and wind speed

*Yoshiyuki Yokoo1, Ren Iwasaki1 (1.Fukushima University)

Keywords:relative humidity, wins speed, topography

The present study estimated future frequency of forest fires to investigate the effects of climate change until the end of 21st century in Japan. We firstly developed an empirical model to estimate forest fire frequency based on the statistical relationships between mean forest fire frequency and their background physiographic conditions in the past. Then we estimated the forest fire frequency in future with relative humidity and wind speed estimated until 2100. Here we used the statistically down-scaled relative humidity and wind speed data generated by Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, NARO, Japan with the climate models of GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3.0 and the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The results showed that mean-monthly frequency of future forest fires will not significantly until 2100 and seasonal change of the frequency will remain dominated in future.