日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会

講演情報

[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-HW 水文・陸水・地下水学・水環境

[A-HW23] 水循環・水環境

2019年5月29日(水) 15:30 〜 17:00 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 8ホール)

コンビーナ:町田 功(産業技術総合研究所地質調査総合センター)、山崎 大(東京大学生産技術研究所)、林 武司(秋田大学教育文化学部)、福士 圭介(金沢大学環日本海域環境研究センター)

[AHW23-P01] A multiobjective risk management model for real-time reservoir flood control operation

*Juan Chen1,2Ping-An Zhong2XinYu Wan2Yu Zhang2 (1.College of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University、2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University)

キーワード:Flood, Reservoir, Flood control operation, Risk assessment, Multiobjective optimization

Many uncertainties exit in the real-time reservoir flood control operation and bring risks to flood control decisions. A multiobjective optimization model is developed for the real-time risk management for the flood control operation of a reservoir system considering multiple uncertainties such as inflow forecast errors and outflow errors. The two competing objectives considered are: (1) minimizing the risk of reservoir upstream flooding and (2) minimizing the risk of downstream flooding. The optimization model seeks to find the operation schedules that satisfy the flood control objectives and simultaneously minimize the overall risks. The decision variables are the hourly reservoir releases. The formulated multiobjective optimization problem is nonlinear and non-convex, and is solved with an improved Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (INSGA-II). We use a filtering algorithm to select representative non-dominated solutions from the Pareto front generated by INSGA-II to assist in real-time decision making. The proposed risk management model is applied to the Foziling reservoir in Huaihe river basin of China. The results show that the proposed method can provide a practical way to optimize the real-time flood control operation for risk management of a reservoir.