Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019

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[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-OS Ocean Sciences & Ocean Environment

[A-OS07] Climate variability and predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales

Thu. May 30, 2019 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 105 (1F)

convener:Takashi Mochizuki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Doug Smith(Met Office), Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Chairperson:V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Takashi Mochizuki(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

[AOS07-04] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system

*Takeshi Doi1, Swadhin Behera1, Toshio Yamagata1 (1.JAMSTEC)

Keywords:ENSO prediction, Westerly Wind Burst, Easterly Wind Surge

Intra-seasonal surface westerly wind bursts (WWB)/easterly wind surges (EWS) in the tropical Pacific play important roles in the onset of El Nino/La Nina. However, the latest version of the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system tends to underestimate the chance of occurrence of those winds. This problem may cause the relatively low skill of predicting the onset of ENSO, and the over-confident problems of ENSO prediction. In this study, we developed the WWB/EWS-like stochastic forcing parameterization, and examined the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system. In my talk, failure of 2014 El Nino prediction is the focus.