日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会

講演情報

[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-OS 海洋科学・海洋環境

[A-OS07] 季節内から十年規模の気候変動と予測可能性

2019年5月30日(木) 10:45 〜 12:15 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 8ホール)

コンビーナ:望月 崇(国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構)、V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL)、Doug Smith(Met Office)、森岡 優志(海洋研究開発機構)

[AOS07-P11] Experimental seasonal climate prediction using CFES: Comparison with the SINTEX-F systems

*小守 信正1田口 文明2吉田 聡3,1土井 威志1野中 正見1 (1.国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構、2.東京大学先端科学技術研究センター、3.京都大学防災研究所)

キーワード:実験的季節予測、全球大気海洋結合モデル、大気海洋相互作用、マルチモデルアンサンブル

An experimental seasonal climate prediction system has been developed based on the Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (CFES). Following the well-established systems based on the SINTEX-F model, initial conditions for seasonal climate prediction are constructed by strongly nudging sea surface temperature (SST) to observed one.

At this stage, 12-member ensemble 6-month predictions from the 1st day of March, June, September, and December have been conducted from 1983 through 2018, after 32-years of coupled spin-up integration with SST-nudging to the observed climatology. The experimental system exhibits skill in predicting variability of seasonal-mean 2-m air temperature over the tropical Pacific, and contributes to the improvement of multi-model ensemble prediction with the SINTEX-F systems.