日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会

講演情報

[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-AS 大気科学・気象学・大気環境

[A-AS01] 高性能スーパーコンピュータを用いた最新の大気科学

2019年5月29日(水) 17:15 〜 18:30 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 8ホール)

コンビーナ:瀬古 弘(気象研究所)、三好 建正(理化学研究所)、小玉 知央(独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構)、滝川 雅之(独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構)

[AAS01-P01] Categorized correction forecast for accumulative precipitation of heavy rainfall processes based on optimal probability (OPPF) in medium-extended-range forecast time

*Ruoyun Niu1 (1.National Meteorological Center)

キーワード:optimal probability, accumulative precipitation of heavy precipitation processes, categorized correction forecast, comparative evaluation of forecast performance

By taking the ensemble prediction data from ECMWF and the intensive observations of precipitation in China, the technology of categorized correction forecast for accumulative precipitation of heavy rainfall processes based on optimal probability(OPPF) is developed, and 3 calculation schemes of OPPF are designed according to overall technical route. Then the reforecast test are carried for the accumulative precipitation of 67 heavy rainfall processes from May to September during 1981 to 2015 in China, and the forecast performance of the 3 OPPFs against that of ensemble mean (EMPF) and control number (CTPF) is evaluated and contrasted. The results show that:(1) In the medium-extended-range (096-360h) forecast time, the performance of the 3 OPPFs are better than that of EMPF and CTPF for heavy precipitation forecast and clear-rain forecast. the performance of OPPF1 and OPPF2 is close to that of EMPF for Moderate precipitation and larger precipitation. OPPF3 produces the best performance among the 3 OPPFs. (2) There are obvious regional differences in forecast performances. TS of OPPF3 in southern China are higher than in northern China, and the performance of OPPF3 for heavy precipitation is better than that of EMPF in southern China. During 096-240h forecast time, the performance of OPPF3 for heavy precipitation is also better than that of EMPF in eastern part of Northeast China.