Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019

Presentation information

[E] Poster

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-GI General Geosciences, Information Geosciences & Simulations

[M-GI30] Data assimilation: A fundamental approach in geosciences

Wed. May 29, 2019 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Poster Hall (International Exhibition Hall8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Shin ya Nakano(The Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Yosuke Fujii(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency), SHINICHI MIYAZAKI(Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University), Takemasa Miyoshi(RIKEN)

[MGI30-P06] Bayesian inference of grain growth prediction via multi-phase-field models

*Shin-ichi Ito1, Hiromichi Nagao1, Takashi Kurokawa1, Tadashi Kasuya1, Junya Inoue1 (1.The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Grain growth, Bayesian inference, Data assimilation, Phase-field model

We propose a Bayesian inference methodology to evaluate unobservable parameters involved in multi-phase-field models with the aim of accurately predicting the observed grain growth, such as in metals and rocks. This approach integrates models and a set of observational image data of grain structures. Since the set of image data is not a time series, directly applying conventional inference techniques that require time series as the input data is difficult. The key idea in our methodology to overcome this difficulty is to construct a time series with an appropriate statistic that characterizes static image data of grain structures. Our methodology implements the empirical Bayes method. It can estimate not only a probability density function of the parameters but also an initial phase-field, which is generally unobservable in real experiments. After validating the proposed method through numerical tests using synthetic data, we apply it to real experimental images of grain structures in a steel alloy. The proposed method properly estimates unobservable parameters together with their uncertainties, and successfully selects the initial phase-field that best explains the experimental data from among candidate initial phase-fields.