日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会

講演情報

[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 S (固体地球科学) » S-SS 地震学

[S-SS07] Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing

2019年5月27日(月) 17:15 〜 18:30 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 8ホール)

コンビーナ:庄 建倉(統計数理研究所)、Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、Matt Gerstenberger(GNS Science)、鶴岡 弘(東京大学地震研究所)

[SSS07-P03] Precision versus uncertainty in regional seismic hazard mapping

*Gerstenberger Matt1Schorlemmer Danijel2 (1.GNS Science、2.GFZ-Potsdam)

キーワード:Seismic hazard、PSHA、uncertainty

Regional and national seismic hazard mapping efforts have increasingly pursued more detailed and precise models and outputs, particularly in terms of source characterisation and modelling. With increasing precision comes increasing uncertainty. In recent years much attention has been paid to modelling uncertainty in ground-motion models and including this in seismic hazard modelling. However, much less effort has been made to quantify and model uncertainty in seismic source characterisation. This raises two questions: 1) is increasing precision appropriate when uncertainty remains poorly quantified? 2) what is the optimal balance between precision and uncertainty? Ultimately the answer to this depends on the end-uses of the models and the implications of increasing uncertainty with increasing precision. Here we explore some of the main sources of uncertainty in seismic source characterisation such as incomplete and limited records of earthquake occurrence in paleoseismic data and earthquake catalogues, non-stationarity of seismicity and the poisson assumption, fault source characterisation and so-called moment balancing. We pay particular focus to uncertainties in estimating hazard in less seismically active regions and the implications for building design guidance.