日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会

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[J] ポスター発表

セッション記号 S (固体地球科学) » S-SS 地震学

[S-SS15] 活断層と古地震

2019年5月28日(火) 17:15 〜 18:30 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 8ホール)

コンビーナ:小荒井 衛(茨城大学理学部理学科地球環境科学コース)、大上 隆史(産業技術総合研究所 地質調査総合センター)、道家 涼介(神奈川県温泉地学研究所)、近藤 久雄(産業技術総合研究所 活断層・火山研究部門)

[SSS15-P26] Risk evaluation and disaster education around the coastal areas of Sea of Marmara, Turkey through the fault model construction of the North Anatolian Fault

*金田 義行1,2,3Haluk Ozener4Nurcan Ozel4,5Dogan Kalafat4Seckin Citak 成実 高橋2,3高嶺 堀2宗朗 堀2,6真由美 阪本10,7Ali Pinar4Asim Ozel11Ahmet Yalciner8Gulum Tanircan4Ahmet Demirtas9 (1.香川大学 地域強靱化研究センター、2.海洋研究開発機構、3.防災科学技術研究所、4.トルコ ボアジチ大学 、5.包括的核実験禁止条約機構、6.東京大学地震研究所、7.名古屋大学、8.トルコ 中東工科大学、9.首相府災害緊急事態管理局、10.兵庫県立大学、11.トルコ イスタンブール大学)

キーワード:北アナトリア断層、マルマラ海、リスク評価、防災教育

Recent, many destructive earthquakes and tsunamis occurred around the plate boundary in the world, which are, 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunami, 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan, and so on. Along plate boundary in Turkey, the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) distributes and the large earthquakes has occurred there. The one of the events along NAF in Turkey is the 1999 Izmit Earthquake, and severe damages was brought to residents The NAF between the eastern end of Turkey and the Aegean Sea has been ruptured in turn from the both ends, and the part off Istanbul city still remains as unruptured zone. It is considered that future large event brings fatal damages not only Istanbul city but also the entire of Turkish economy.

To prepare future large earthquake there, Japan and Turkey made an agreement to start a multidisciplinary research project, MarDiM SATREPS in 2003. The Project has four research groups with the following goals. Group 1 is Marmara Earthquake Source region observational research group to clarify seismicity, crustal structures and crustal displacement, and to construct a possible fault model. Group 2 focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along NAF and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Group 3 aims improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. Group 4 promotes disaster educations using research result visuals and construct strategies of disaster mitigation.

Group 1 constructed a fault model along NAF with some asperities and with variation on the dip. The segment boundary was also identified through the modeling and it is consistent with the past rupture pattern and fluid distribution. The NAF on the western region of Sea of Marmara has creep and the rate is nearly half of block motion based on direct seafloor observation for crustal displacement. Group 2 calculated cyclic rupture pattern along NAF using heterogeneous fault model and constructed monitoring system “SWIFT” for crustal stress field by mechanisms of many events estimated automatically. We developed tsunami calculation code to image inundation around the coastal area. Group 3 investigated ground structure through regular fine shake observation, and constructed city model of industrial region supporting Turkish economy. We simulated strong motion using ground structure, city model and fault model derived from Group 1 and made a new hazard map. Group 4 considered teaching materials for disaster prevention including Japanese animation technique based on above results of three groups. These materials are utilized for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and disaster education in Turkey.