[M-IS01] Environmental, socio-economic and climatic changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS01-03] Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation in Northern Eurasia: Geographic Impact Assesment

*Dmitry A Streletskiy¹ (1.George Washington University)

キーワード：permafrost, climate change, economics , Arctic

The Arctic regions of Norther Eurasia are progressively warming. One of the major concerned of observed and projected warming is presence of permafrost. Limited permafrost observations show that following climatic trends permafrost is warming across the region. The active layer, the layer just above permafrost that is subject to seasonal thawing and freezing, is also increasing. These changes are important for many natural ecosystem processes and also critical in design of the infrastructure on permafrost. This work is utilizing latest available climate input and permafrost-geotechnical modeling in order to locate the areas where permafrost degradation and associated hazards may negatively impact critical infrastructure. The cost of various types of infrastructure is then used to estimate the monetary value of impacted infrastructure and to evaluate the ability of regions to absorb the cost required to maintain infrastructure on permafrost. The results can be used to inform decision makers and planers in areas occupied by permafrost.