日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会

講演情報

[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 P (宇宙惑星科学) » P-EM 太陽地球系科学・宇宙電磁気学・宇宙環境

[P-EM12] Space Weather and Space Climate

2019年5月28日(火) 15:30 〜 17:00 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 8ホール)

コンビーナ:片岡 龍峰(国立極地研究所)、Antti A Pulkkinen(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)、草野 完也(名古屋大学宇宙地球環境研究所)、坂口 歌織(情報通信研究機構)

[PEM12-P24] なぜある種の確率予報システムは信頼性が無いのか?

*久保 勇樹1 (1.情報通信研究機構)

キーワード:確率予報、信頼性

One of the important attributes to be satisfied for the probabilistic forecast system is reliability. However, some probabilistic forecast systems lack reliability. Why do some probabilistic forecasts lack reliability? We investigate a condition for a probabilistic binary forecast to be reliable in this work. We mathematically prove that a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for achieving a reliable probabilistic forecast is maximizing the Peirce skill score (PSS) at the threshold probability of the climatological base rate. The condition is confirmed by using artificially synthesized forecast-outcome pair data and previously published probabilistic solar flare forecast models. The condition gives a partial answer as to why some probabilistic forecast systems lack reliability, because the system, which does not satisfy the proved condition, can never be reliable. The result implies that those who want to develop a reliable probabilistic forecast system must adjust or train the system so as to maximize PSS near the threshold probability of the climatological base rate.