Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019

Presentation information

[J] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-CG Complex & General

[S-CG62] Potentiality of Machine Learning in Solid Earth Sciences

Sun. May 26, 2019 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM 304 (3F)

convener:Takahiko Uchide(Research Institute of Earthquake and Volcano Geology, Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)), Hirokuni Oda(Institute of Geology and Geoinformation, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST), Chairperson:Takahiko Uchide(Geological Survey of Japan, AIST), Hirokuni Oda

10:05 AM - 10:25 AM

[SCG62-05] Deep Learning Approaches for Eruption Prediction of Sakurajima

★Invited Papers

*Tsuyoshi Murata1 (1.Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Keywords:Eruption Prediction, Sakurajima, Deep Learning

In this research, we take advantages of deep learning into time series data and apply this technique to sensor data acquired from volcanic monitors.
We focus on two problems: (1) volcanic eruption classification and (2) early prediction of volcanic eruption. The goal of (1) is to recognize the current status of the volcano, while the goal of (2) is to predict the future eruption by detecting the time series prior to the eruption which is the early signal of the upcoming eruption. For (1), the proposed method VolNet based on convolutional neural network achieves an average F-score of 90%. For (2), the proposed method based on Stacked 2-Layer LSTM achieves promising results of 66.1% accuracy. And the accuracy of 4-stage warning system is 51% in the critical stage. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods with the largest and the most comprehensive set of volcano sensor time series data.