[SSS15-P26] Risk evaluation and disaster education around the coastal areas of Sea of Marmara, Turkey through the fault model construction of the North Anatolian Fault
Keywords:North Anatolian Fault, Sae of Marmara , Risk evaluation, Disaster education
To prepare future large earthquake there, Japan and Turkey made an agreement to start a multidisciplinary research project, MarDiM SATREPS in 2003. The Project has four research groups with the following goals. Group 1 is Marmara Earthquake Source region observational research group to clarify seismicity, crustal structures and crustal displacement, and to construct a possible fault model. Group 2 focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along NAF and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Group 3 aims improvements and constructions of seismic characterizations and damage predictions based on observation researches and precise simulations. Group 4 promotes disaster educations using research result visuals and construct strategies of disaster mitigation.
Group 1 constructed a fault model along NAF with some asperities and with variation on the dip. The segment boundary was also identified through the modeling and it is consistent with the past rupture pattern and fluid distribution. The NAF on the western region of Sea of Marmara has creep and the rate is nearly half of block motion based on direct seafloor observation for crustal displacement. Group 2 calculated cyclic rupture pattern along NAF using heterogeneous fault model and constructed monitoring system “SWIFT” for crustal stress field by mechanisms of many events estimated automatically. We developed tsunami calculation code to image inundation around the coastal area. Group 3 investigated ground structure through regular fine shake observation, and constructed city model of industrial region supporting Turkish economy. We simulated strong motion using ground structure, city model and fault model derived from Group 1 and made a new hazard map. Group 4 considered teaching materials for disaster prevention including Japanese animation technique based on above results of three groups. These materials are utilized for disaster mitigation in Marmara region and disaster education in Turkey.