2:45 PM - 3:00 PM
[STT46-05] Bias Correction for the Distribution of Aftershocks Within Short-Term Period Immediately After Large Main Shock
Keywords:Magnitude frequency, Marked point process, Geoscience
An adoption of a likelihood that incorporates models of the detection rate of aftershocks can be a solution to correct the bias, but the simultaneous dependency on both magnitudes and arrival times of the aftershocks makes this difficult. Thus using nonparametric models for the detection rate is unrealistic though misspecification of the model may lead to a severe biased estimator.
In this study, we propose two detection rate models that are individually conditional on the magnitudes and the arrival times. The Generalized Moments of Methods (GMM)-type estimator overcomes the difficulty in estimation due to the imcompletely defined joint distribution. With the use of prior information, the distribution of the aftershocks can be effectively estimated within short-time period.