[A-CG48] Projection and detection of global environmental change

convener:Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroaki Tatebe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL)

Anthropogenic forcings on global environment are expected to cause intensification of extreme events, sea level rise, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, as well as large-scale ecosystem changes. Earth System modeling groups across the world performed simulations and published projection data toward 6th IPCC assessment report due in 2021. Various new types of studies, such as event attribution and coupling of socio-economic processes and Earth system dynamics, are emerging in the field of global change projections. In addition, observational studies are becoming increasingly more important for grasping changes in the global environment and evaluating model projections. Interactions and collaborations beyond boundaries of conventional scientific disciplines are desired for dealing with the issue of global changes. This session thus aims to deepen our understanding on global change, from both disciplinary and interdisciplinary viewpoints.

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[ACG48-07] Toward marine ecosystem prediction with a global ESM

★Invited Papers

*Jong-yeon Park¹, Charles A. Stock², John P. Dunne², Xiaosong Yang², Anthony Rosati² (1.Jeonbuk National University (JBNU), 2.Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL))

[ACG48-08] Estimating global air–sea and air–land CO2 flux fluctuations over the past forty years with an Earth system model incorporating a data assimilation system

*Michio Watanabe¹, Hiroaki Tatebe¹, Hiroshi Koyama, Tomohiro Hajima¹, Masahiro Watanabe², Michio Kawamiya¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.The University of Tokyo)

[ACG48-09] Overview of the processes interacting between Earth and socio-economic systems

*Kaoru Tachiiri¹, Ken'ichi Matsumoto², Xuanming Su¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.Nagasaki University)

[ACG48-10] Quantify allowable warmings for 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ climate targets

*Xuanming Su¹, Katsumasa Tanaka^2,3, Kaoru Tachiiri¹, Michio Watanabe¹, Michio Kawamiya¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 3.National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

[ACG48-11] Impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on water, food, bio-energy and land use investigated with an integrated land surface model (MIROC-INTEG)

*Tokuta Yokohata¹, Tsuguki Kinoshita², Gen Sakurai³, Akihiko Ito¹, Yusuke Satoh¹, Yadu Pokhrel⁴, Masashi Okada¹, Etsushi Kato⁵, KIYOSHI TAKAHASHI¹, Naota Hanasaki¹, Shinichiro Fujimori⁶, Seita Emori¹ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.Ibaraki University, 3.National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 4.Michigan State University, 5.The Institute of Applied Energy, 6.Kyoto University)

[ACG48-12] Multi-type global drought projection using multi-model hydrological simulations

*Yusuke Satoh¹, Tokuta Yokohata¹, Yadu Pokhrel², Naota Hanasaki¹, Julien ERIC STANISLAS Boulange¹, Peter Burek³, Kumiko TAKATA¹, Hideo Shiogama¹ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, 3.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)