A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-CG Complex & General
[A-CG52] Large Ensemble Modeling Approaches as Tools for Climate and Impacts Research
convener:Rodgers Keith Bradley(IBS Center for Climate Physics), Shoshiro Minobe(Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University), Hideo Shiogama(Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies), Ryo Mizuta(Meteorological Research Institute)
Large ensemble model simulations are now integral tools for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated impacts. The range of tools applied encompasses Earth System Models (ESMs), Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs), Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs), Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), with the number of ensemble members typically spanning ten to several tens to one hundred. In addition to their utility in identifying emergent forced trends, they are also proving to be of great value in the study of extreme events and how extreme events evolve under anthropogenic perturbations. Furthermore, large ensembles of AGCMs nd OGCMs can prove invaluable as complements to fully coupled models in providing insights into scales and drivers of variability and trends, as well as climate feedbacks.
This session welcomes studies using the full range of large ensemble modeling tools. This includes studies of emergent trends and extreme events, and more generally studies that facilitate interpretation of observations as well as projections of future changes. Abstracts are particularly welcomed that address novel and emergent topics, including but not limited to compound events, biogeochemistry, and observing system design.
[ACG52-02] Event attribution using large ensemble model simulations by MIROC5-AGCM, MRI-AGCM, and NHRCM
*Yukiko Imada1, Hiroaki Kawase1, Hideo Shiogama3, Masato Mori4, Chiharu Takahashi2, Miki Arai5, Masahiro Watanabe2, Izuru Takayabu1 (1.Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2.Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 3.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 4.Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo, 5.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
*Munehiko Yamaguchi1, Johnny C. L. Chan2, Il-Ju Moon3, Kohei Yoshida1, Ryo Mizuta1 (1.Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2.City University of Hong Kong, 3.Jeju National University)
*Tamas Bodai1,2, Axel Timmermann1,2, Gabor Drotos3, Timea Haszpra4 (1.Pusan National University, 2.Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, South Korea, 3.Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos, CSIC-UIB, Palma de Mallorca, Spain, 4.Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary)