[A-CG52] Large Ensemble Modeling Approaches as Tools for Climate and Impacts Research

convener:Rodgers Keith Bradley(IBS Center for Climate Physics), Shoshiro Minobe(Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University), Hideo Shiogama(Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies), Ryo Mizuta(Meteorological Research Institute)

Large ensemble model simulations are now integral tools for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated impacts. The range of tools applied encompasses Earth System Models (ESMs), Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs), Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs), Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), with the number of ensemble members typically spanning ten to several tens to one hundred. In addition to their utility in identifying emergent forced trends, they are also proving to be of great value in the study of extreme events and how extreme events evolve under anthropogenic perturbations. Furthermore, large ensembles of AGCMs nd OGCMs can prove invaluable as complements to fully coupled models in providing insights into scales and drivers of variability and trends, as well as climate feedbacks.
This session welcomes studies using the full range of large ensemble modeling tools. This includes studies of emergent trends and extreme events, and more generally studies that facilitate interpretation of observations as well as projections of future changes. Abstracts are particularly welcomed that address novel and emergent topics, including but not limited to compound events, biogeochemistry, and observing system design.

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[ACG52-P01] Increase in Rain-on-Snow events in Japan as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations

*Masamichi Ohba¹, Hiroaki Kawase² (1.Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 2.Meteorological Research Institute)

[ACG52-P02] Projected changes in extreme precipitation in a 60-km AGCM large ensemble and their dependence on return periods

*Ryo Mizuta¹, Hirokazu Endo¹ (1.Meteorological Research Institute)

[ACG52-P03] Detection and Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the d4pdf Mega-ensemble Projection

*Adrean Webb¹, Tomoya Shimura¹, Nobuhito Mori¹ (1.Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Coastal Disaster Research)

[ACG52-P04] ESM-projected global change in the indices of extreme weather using the TR3S method of bias-correction

*Martin Gomez-Garcia¹, Akiko Matsumura¹, Daikichi Ogawada¹ (1.Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. Research and Development Center)

[ACG52-P05] Droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO₂ and PM_2.5 in equatorial Asia due to historical and future climate changes

*Hideo Shiogama¹ (1.Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies)

[ACG52-P06] Future change in phytoplankton phenology simulated by large ensemble experiment

*Ryohei Yamaguchi¹, Keith Rodgers^1,2, Karl J Stein^1,2, Axel Timmermann^1,2, John P Dunne³, Richard D Slater⁴, Sarah Schlunegger⁴ (1.IBS Center for Climate Physics, 2.Pusan National University, 3.NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 4.Princeton University)

[ACG52-P07] Seasonality Constraints on the rate of Pteropod Habitat Compression under 21st Century Climate Change

*Keith Bradley Rodgers^1,2, Sarah Schlunegger³, Richard Slater³, Burke Hales⁴ (1.IBS Center for Climate Physics, 2.Pusan National University, 3.AOS Program, Princeton University, 4.Oregon State University)