[AAS10-06] Future changes in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation and their uncertainty in 60km-mesh MRI-AGCM ensemble simulations
Keywords:monsoon precipitation, global warming, East Asia
Future climate projections at the end of the 21 century under the RCP8.5 scenario show that both summer precipitation and summer monthly precipitation will generally increase over East Asia, accompanied by specific spatial patterns with some uncertainty. In June, the Meiyu/Baiu rainband is projected to enhance and slightly shift southward especially in the eastern part, with high agreement among the ensemble members. In July, there is large uncertainty in behavior of the Meiyu/Baiu rainband over Japan. In August, precipitation is projected to increase over the Eurasian continent and the surroundings.
Further analysis based on idealized experiments with the MRI-AGCM indicates that an SST warming has a dominant role in the general increase of precipitation in East Asia as well as the enhancement and southward shift of the Meiyu/Baiu rainband, while an CO2-induced land warming exerts large influence on the increase of precipitation over the Eurasian continent, especially in late summer.