JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020

Presentation information

[E] Poster

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS14] Extreme Events: Observations and Modeling

convener:Sridhara Nayak(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University), JAGABANDHU PANDA(National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

[AAS14-P01] Heat Wave Identification Using an Operational Weather Model and Analog Ensemble

*Alon Sidel1, Weiming Hu1, Martina Calovi1, Guido Cervone1,2 (1.The Pennsylvania State University, 2.National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Keywords:heat waves, analog, ensembles

Heat waves are notoriously difficult to forecast due to their highly localized variables, yet remain one of the world's deadliest natural disasters. This project uses the Analog Ensemble technique (AnEn), which generates probability information from a deterministic predictive model, to identify heat waves across the continental United States with further accuracy. Heat index was calculated to assess the intensity of heat waves and forecast ensembles for heat index were generated using weather analogs. AnEn was shown to outperform the baseline weather prediction model when a quantile was used to summarize the ensemble.