[ACG47-07] On reliable pattern of historical land-use and land-cover change transition in Southeast Asia
Keywords:Land-use change, Southeast Asia, Biogeochemical model
Southeast Asian LUC emissions by biogeochemical models have drastically changed between before and after the update of land-use and land-cover changes forcing for models (i.e., Land-Use Harmonization: LUH). Before the update, (1) LUC emissions increased from the 1980s to the 1990s, then decreased in the 2000s. After the update, (2) LUC emissions were kept at a low level for the 1980s-1990s, then started increasing in the 2000s and continued to increase towards the recent years. These changes question whether efforts of land-use management strategies in the past decades has been effective, thus deliver different messages to policy makers. Based on results of multiple estimates of LUC emissions including biogeochemical models (the TRENDY series, ver. 2 to ver. 7), statistical approaches (inventories and country statistics), and remote-sensing, this study evaluates how reliable pattern of historical land-use and land-cover change transition in Southeast Asia should be.