[ACG52-02] Event attribution using large ensemble model simulations by MIROC5-AGCM, MRI-AGCM, and NHRCM
Keywords:Event Attribution, Large ensemble simulation, Extreme event
We conducted large ensemble simulations for the factual and counterfactual experiments using two atmospheric general circulation models: MIROC5-AGCM and MRI-AGCM3.2. The MIROC5 dataset is superior for consideration of the range of uncertainty, whereas the MRI-AGCM3.2 dataset, so called d4PDF (the Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change), focuses on high-resolution simulations with ~60 km horizontal resolution along with downscaled products produced by a regional climate model NHRCM with ~20km horizontal resolution which covers the East Asian region.
Here, I will introduce our recent works using the large ensemble simulations focusing on how much anthropogenic global warming contributed to increased occurrence of recent extreme events around the globe when compared to the inter-annual and decadal variability.