[ACG57-P03] Trends of summer precipitation over northern Eurasia in historical simulations with MIROC6
It is well known that many models developed by organizations around the world have
simulated past climate changes and projected future climate changes (e.g., Eyring et al,
2016). However, in northern Eurasia, features and uncertainties of long-term trends
simulated in the models are not sufficiently evaluated. Therefore, in this study, the features
and the uncertainties of the variability of summer mean precipitation over northern Eurasia
in the historical simulations by MIROC6 are investigated. We analyzed data from 50
members of the historical simulation (1850-2014) with MIROC6 under CMIP6 protocol.
In the regions (north more than 60N) and Northeast Asia, the ensemble averages of
temporal trends of summer precipitation for 1951-1980 among the 50 members were
negative, approximately -0.04 ~ -0.02 mm day-1 decade-1. However, for 1971-2000, the
trend changed to positive. For 1990-2014, the positive trends in eastern Siberia became
significant, but the negative trends in the southern part of western Siberia also appeared.
In the presentation, we discuss uncertainties in the trends of summer precipitation as well
as changes in atmospheric circulation and sea ice conditions which could relate to the
trends of summer precipitation.
References:
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K.
E. (2016), Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)
experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958,
doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.
simulated past climate changes and projected future climate changes (e.g., Eyring et al,
2016). However, in northern Eurasia, features and uncertainties of long-term trends
simulated in the models are not sufficiently evaluated. Therefore, in this study, the features
and the uncertainties of the variability of summer mean precipitation over northern Eurasia
in the historical simulations by MIROC6 are investigated. We analyzed data from 50
members of the historical simulation (1850-2014) with MIROC6 under CMIP6 protocol.
In the regions (north more than 60N) and Northeast Asia, the ensemble averages of
temporal trends of summer precipitation for 1951-1980 among the 50 members were
negative, approximately -0.04 ~ -0.02 mm day-1 decade-1. However, for 1971-2000, the
trend changed to positive. For 1990-2014, the positive trends in eastern Siberia became
significant, but the negative trends in the southern part of western Siberia also appeared.
In the presentation, we discuss uncertainties in the trends of summer precipitation as well
as changes in atmospheric circulation and sea ice conditions which could relate to the
trends of summer precipitation.
References:
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K.
E. (2016), Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)
experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958,
doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.