[A-OS23] Atlantic climate variability, and its global impacts and predictability

[AOS23-P03] Climate change in the tropical Atlantic

*Noel S Keenlyside¹, Lander Crespo¹, Shunya Koseki¹, Ingo Richter², Lea Svendsen¹ (1.Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway, 2.JAMSTEC, Japan)

Keywords:Climate Change, Tropical Atlantic, Climate modelling

The tropical Atlantic SST have warmed by about 1 degree over the historical period, with greatest warming in the east, along the African coast and in the Gulf of Guinea. Experiments performed from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) indicate that models fail to reproduce this warming pattern, instead showing a rather uniform warming. Future projections with these models also tend to show rather uniform warming. In constrast. results from anomaly coupled models indicate that model biases impact the ability of climate models to simulate warming patterns in the tropical Atlantic. Here we investigate the role of model biases on climate change in the tropical Atlantic in the CMIP experiments. In addition, we have analyzed impacts of global warming on tropical Atlantic climate variability, and we assess the sensitive of the results are to model biases.