[MZZ53-P05] Detectability of large forecast error on surface solar radiation using grand ensemble method considering atmospheric circulation patterns
Keywords:Ensemble forecast, Detection of large forecast error, Surface solar radiation, Renewable energy
The study period is January 2014 to May 2017 in five winter months (January, February, May, November, December), and forecast lead time is from 24 to 144 hour every 24hours. The forecast busts were defined as the top 5, 10, 15, 20 absolute forecast error. The atmospheric circulation patterns are categorized Winter monsoon (WM), Winter Pacific (WP), High Pressure (HP), Low Pressure (LP), Southerly Flow (SF) using 500hPa height. As the results, the proposed method in this study indicate higher detectability of forecast bust than the non-categorized detection (previous study) method. The values of Youden index improved of considering the flow patterns. Moreover, the improvement assessed by the false alarm rate under perfect hit rate (FPR) was indicated in all cases. The FPR is smallest when top 5% forecast busts cases, The FPRs of MCEG in 6 forecast lead time are 0.52, 0.44, 0.50, 0.44, 0.41, 0.53 respectively. The improvement not only the detection method using MCGE but also the method using single NWP center ensemble forecast.