[P-EM17] Space Weather and Space Climate

[PEM17-10] Development of real-time prediction system of CME arrival and magnetic field with ensemble SUSANOO-CME simulation

*Daikou Shiota^1,4, Seiji Yashiro², Ryuho Kataoka³, Kazumasa Iwai⁴, Yusuke Ebihara⁵ (1.National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), 2.Catholic University of America, 3.National Institute of Polar Research, 4.Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, 5.Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto University)

Keywords:CME, solar wind, space weather forecast

The predictions of CME arrival to the Earth and the southward magnetic field brought by the CME flux ropes are one of crucial tasks for space weather forecast.
We have developed an MHD simulation of the interplanetary propagation of multiple CMEs with their internal magnetic flux ropes, called as SUSANOO-CME (Shiota & Kataoka 2016). The simulation solves propagation of solar wind and CMEs in the inner heliosphere from 25 solar radii where all the balk flow exceeds fast mode speed. The information of solar wind and CME is specified at the inner boundary with empirical and analytical models using real-time observations of the Sun and the corona.
Recently, we have been constructing a prediction system of CME impacts (CME arrival and magnetic field) utilizing SUSANOO-CME with the real-time solar observations for the purpose of use in space weather forecast in NICT. The system is capable of performing ensemble simulation with different sets of multiple CME input parameters, which is controlled from web-browser interfaces. We developed a methods to visualize results of each ensemble case and summarize time profiles of the ensemble simulations, which are also accessible through a web-browser. In this presentation, we will report the current status of the development and discuss the remaining issues and the future development.