JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020

Presentation information

[J] Oral

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-CG Complex & General

[S-CG70] Reducing risks from earthquakes, tsunamis & volcanoes: new applications of realtime geophysical data

convener:Masashi Ogiso(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency), Masumi Yamada(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University), Naotaka YAMAMOTO CHIKASADA(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience), Yusaku Ohta(Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University)

[SCG70-10] Conceptual design of forecasting-technology development over the next decade for improvement of JMA tsunami warning

★Invited Papers

*Hiroaki Tsushima1, Yuji Nishimae1, Yutaka Hayashi2, Takeyasu Yamamoto3, Kenji Nakata3, Shigeki Aoki1 (1.Japan Meteorological Agency, 2.Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, 3.Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

Keywords:Tsunami, Tsunami warning, Real-time forecast

In Japan, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has responsibility for operational tsunami forecast and warning. When a tsunamigenic earthquake occurs around Japan, JMA issues tsunami warning within three minutes after the earthquake occurrence using seismic-wave data (estimation of hypocenter and earthquake magnitude) and pre-computed tsunami-scenario database. Then, warnings are then updated based on more detailed analysis: e.g. CMT analysis to estimate moment magnitude, monitoring of offshore and coastal tsunami data, and real-time source estimation from offshore tsunami data (Tsushima and Yamamoto, 2020, this meeting). Then those warnings will be canceled by monitoring tsunami data at coastal tide gauges. In the present operation, JMA provide arrival times of the first tsunami waves and the maximum tsunami height at coastal sites of Japan.

In about 10 years to come, JMA aims to forecast not only the present tsunami parameters shown above, but also overview of tsunami (i.e. first wave, maximum wave and decay process) towards provision of information such as timing of maximum tsunami hit and view of cancellation of tsunami warning. To achieve the goal, we consider that development and improvement of tsunami-forecasting technologies is required, such as real-time tsunami simulation with high-resolution bathymetric data for update of tsunami warning, revision of tsunami-scenario database for prompt tsunami warning, and stochastic approach for prediction of tsunami-decay process. In this paper, we will show these technologies we are discussing and the related concerns. Also, as one of the examples, results of feasibility study related to real-time tsunami numerical simulation will be presented.