[SCG70-10] Conceptual design of forecasting-technology development over the next decade for improvement of JMA tsunami warning
Keywords:Tsunami, Tsunami warning, Real-time forecast
In about 10 years to come, JMA aims to forecast not only the present tsunami parameters shown above, but also overview of tsunami (i.e. first wave, maximum wave and decay process) towards provision of information such as timing of maximum tsunami hit and view of cancellation of tsunami warning. To achieve the goal, we consider that development and improvement of tsunami-forecasting technologies is required, such as real-time tsunami simulation with high-resolution bathymetric data for update of tsunami warning, revision of tsunami-scenario database for prompt tsunami warning, and stochastic approach for prediction of tsunami-decay process. In this paper, we will show these technologies we are discussing and the related concerns. Also, as one of the examples, results of feasibility study related to real-time tsunami numerical simulation will be presented.