[S-CG55] Reducing risks from earthquakes, tsunamis & volcanoes: new applications of realtime geophysical data

Mon. May 23, 2022 3:30 PM - 5:00 PM 301B (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Masashi Ogiso(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency), convener:Masumi Yamada(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University), Yusaku Ohta(Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University), convener:Naotaka YAMAMOTO CHIKASADA(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience), Chairperson:Masumi Yamada(Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University), Yusaku Ohta(Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University), Masashi Ogiso(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

As the number of population centers grows in regions with earthquake, tsunami and volcano hazards, the importance of improving methods for rapid, realtime estimates of activity increases. Realtime monitoring, analysis, and prediction of seismic ground motion, crustal movement and tsunami will be powerful tools to contribute to earthquake and tsunami disaster preparedness/mitigation. Tsunami and Earthquake Early Warning systems exist today in many locations around the world. Now JMA has started to promptly provide Eruption Notices to inform people of impending and beginning volcanic eruptions. Large events like the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) have demonstrated some of the shortcomings of existing techniques. In this session, we invite presentations on new ideas, methods and applications of (near) realtime analysis of seismic, geodetic and tsunami data, to the problem of realtime prediction aimed at improving disaster preparedness/mitigation in the fields of earthquake, tsunami and volcano observation. Presentation is encouraged to bring together scientists, engineers, and practitioners from a broad range of backgrounds from around the world, and to promote collaborative communication at the leading edge of the science and technologies.

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3:30 PM - 3:45 PM

[SCG55-01] Non-seismic tsunami real-time forecasting under data assimilation approach – case study for Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption tsunami using S-net data

*Naotaka YAMAMOTO CHIKASADA¹, Wataru Suzuki¹ (1.National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM

[SCG55-02] A posteriori estimation of seismic intensity distribution using backpropagation of seismic energy

*Masashi Ogiso¹ (1.Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

4:00 PM - 4:15 PM

[SCG55-03] Development of sequential estimation method of earthquake fault plane based on ground-motion indexes using Bayesian optimization

*Hisahiko Kubo¹, Takashi Kunugi¹ (1.National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)

4:15 PM - 4:30 PM

[SCG55-04] Development of coseismic fault model estimation system using real-time PPP

*Keitaro Ohno¹, Naohiro Tada¹, Satoshi Abe¹, Naofumi Takamatsu¹, Hiroki Muramatsu¹, Satoshi Kawamoto¹ (1.Geospatial Information Authority of Japan)

4:30 PM - 4:45 PM

[SCG55-05] Development of the algorithm to estimate the coseismic fault and its uncertainty using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

*Taisuke Yamada¹, Yusaku Ohta¹, Keitaro Ohno² (1.Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 2.Geospatial Information Authority of Japan)

Discussion (4:45 PM - 5:00 PM)