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[AAS08-P02] Simulation of lightning event using an Ensemble of WRF modelling system configurations: Performances of Lightning Potential Index and Lightning Flash Count
Keywords:Simulation, WRF model, NCUM model, Lightning Potential Index, Lightning Flash Count, Ensemble mean
Widespread events of lightnings occurred in two states of Northern India on 25th June 2020, killing 83 people in Bihar and 24 people in Uttar Pradesh (UP). Lightning event is studied using satellite observations, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM). A Specialized forecast system for lightning and thunderstorm is needed to minimize the loss of lives. The updraft and ice particles concentration play important roles in the initialization of lightning inside the thundercloud. The charge generation and separation inside the clouds play an essential role in the severity of lightning. Lightning Potential Index (LPI) measures the potential of charge generation and separation inside the clouds. It plays a significant role in determining lightning-prone zones.
Numerical simulation of lightning is carried out using an ensemble of different WRF model configurations during an active phase of the monsoon over the Indo-Gangetic plains. The model is integrated from 24th June 00 UTC to 26th June 06 UTC with an ensemble of 9 members. The ensemble consists of 1 control + 8 members with different configurations of the WRF model. LPI is calculated using the model-derived parameters. Furthermore, the model calculates the lightning flash count using a lightning parameterization scheme. The results are analyzed using ISS LIS, INSAT-3D and NCUM model forecasted output. All ensemble member's results are distinct from each other. This shows the sensitivity of every configuration. Member 2 (M2) is the triple nested member; it uses the same physics option as member 1 (M1). Moreover, M2 shows comparatively good results towards the observation and NCUM results. The model simulated result of lightning flash count (Per 3 hr.) on the range of 4-5 are overestimated. However, their locations of lightning flash count are matching with ISS LIS data. Brightness temperatures of INSAT-3D is also above 230 Kelvin over all the respective locations. Ensemble mean of LPI is comparable to NCUM results. Ensemble probability of high lightning threat shows 80-90 % probability over northeast Bihar (Gopalganj).
Numerical simulation of lightning is carried out using an ensemble of different WRF model configurations during an active phase of the monsoon over the Indo-Gangetic plains. The model is integrated from 24th June 00 UTC to 26th June 06 UTC with an ensemble of 9 members. The ensemble consists of 1 control + 8 members with different configurations of the WRF model. LPI is calculated using the model-derived parameters. Furthermore, the model calculates the lightning flash count using a lightning parameterization scheme. The results are analyzed using ISS LIS, INSAT-3D and NCUM model forecasted output. All ensemble member's results are distinct from each other. This shows the sensitivity of every configuration. Member 2 (M2) is the triple nested member; it uses the same physics option as member 1 (M1). Moreover, M2 shows comparatively good results towards the observation and NCUM results. The model simulated result of lightning flash count (Per 3 hr.) on the range of 4-5 are overestimated. However, their locations of lightning flash count are matching with ISS LIS data. Brightness temperatures of INSAT-3D is also above 230 Kelvin over all the respective locations. Ensemble mean of LPI is comparable to NCUM results. Ensemble probability of high lightning threat shows 80-90 % probability over northeast Bihar (Gopalganj).