日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会

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[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-AS 大気科学・気象学・大気環境

[A-AS08] Multiple scale structure and their interactions in Asian monsoon system

2022年5月31日(火) 11:00 〜 13:00 オンラインポスターZoom会場 (6) (Ch.06)

コンビーナ:徹 寺尾(香川大学教育学部)、コンビーナ:鼎 信次郎(東京工業大学 環境・社会理工学院)、松本 淳(首都大学東京大学院都市環境科学研究科地理環境学域)、座長:寺尾 徹(香川大学教育学部)

11:00 〜 13:00

[AAS08-P02] Simulation of lightning event using an Ensemble of WRF modelling system configurations: Performances of Lightning Potential Index and Lightning Flash Count

*Anish Kumar1、Someshwar Das1、Subrat Kumar Panda1、Toru Terao2、Fumie Murata3 (1.central university of rajasthan, India、2.Kagawa university, Japan、3.Kochi University, Japan)

キーワード:Simulation, WRF model, NCUM model, Lightning Potential Index, Lightning Flash Count, Ensemble mean

Widespread events of lightnings occurred in two states of Northern India on 25th June 2020, killing 83 people in Bihar and 24 people in Uttar Pradesh (UP). Lightning event is studied using satellite observations, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM). A Specialized forecast system for lightning and thunderstorm is needed to minimize the loss of lives. The updraft and ice particles concentration play important roles in the initialization of lightning inside the thundercloud. The charge generation and separation inside the clouds play an essential role in the severity of lightning. Lightning Potential Index (LPI) measures the potential of charge generation and separation inside the clouds. It plays a significant role in determining lightning-prone zones.

Numerical simulation of lightning is carried out using an ensemble of different WRF model configurations during an active phase of the monsoon over the Indo-Gangetic plains. The model is integrated from 24th June 00 UTC to 26th June 06 UTC with an ensemble of 9 members. The ensemble consists of 1 control + 8 members with different configurations of the WRF model. LPI is calculated using the model-derived parameters. Furthermore, the model calculates the lightning flash count using a lightning parameterization scheme. The results are analyzed using ISS LIS, INSAT-3D and NCUM model forecasted output. All ensemble member's results are distinct from each other. This shows the sensitivity of every configuration. Member 2 (M2) is the triple nested member; it uses the same physics option as member 1 (M1). Moreover, M2 shows comparatively good results towards the observation and NCUM results. The model simulated result of lightning flash count (Per 3 hr.) on the range of 4-5 are overestimated. However, their locations of lightning flash count are matching with ISS LIS data. Brightness temperatures of INSAT-3D is also above 230 Kelvin over all the respective locations. Ensemble mean of LPI is comparable to NCUM results. Ensemble probability of high lightning threat shows 80-90 % probability over northeast Bihar (Gopalganj).