1:45 PM - 2:00 PM
[AAS11-12] Estimating controlling factors of the CH4 changes/variability observed in 2000-2020: a global modeling study with CHASER/VISIT
Keywords:methane, land ecosystem, chemistry climate model, CHASER, VISIT
Validation using the data from the GOSAT satellite observations and ground-based observations by WDCGG shows that the introduction of the VISIT emissions into CHASER improves the reproducibility of the CH4 simulations in CHASER, mainly due to the improved estimation of wetland emissions in the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes in the summer and fall seasons.
We also conduct sensitivity simulations on the effects of seasonal variation and interannual variability of the wet-land and rice-paddy emissions on CH4. It is shown that the seasonality in wetland emissions largely enhances the seasonal amplitude of the global mean atmospheric methane concentration by about 20%, suggesting that the seasonality of wetland emissions can be an important factor in the atmospheric methane response. It is also indicated that the increase in global CH4 concentration over the past 20 years is largely contributed from wetlands and rice paddies emissions as well as other types of emissions (mainly industrial). Our simulation also shows that the interannual variability of the observed CH4 growth rate is substantially controlled by emissions from wetlands and rice paddies; in particular, there is a considerably high correlation for the interannual variation of the growth rate between the GOSAT observation and the wetland/rice-paddy driven component in the simulation.
Furthermore, the simulation results suggest that about 50% of the increase in global mean CH4 observed from 2019 to 2020 can be explained by the increase in emissions from wetlands and rice paddy (mostly from wetlands).