Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022

Presentation information

Print

[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-CG Complex & General

[A-CG34] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Multidecadal Timescales

Wed. May 25, 2022 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM 201A (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), convener:Hiroyuki Murakami(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), Tomoe Nasuno(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), convener:Liping Zhang(NOAA GFDL Princeton), Chairperson:Liping Zhang(NOAA GFDL Princeton), Yushi Morioka(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)


11:00 AM - 11:15 AM

[ACG34-08] On the predictability of the extreme drought in East Africa

*Takeshi Doi1, Swadhin Behera1, Toshio Yamagata1,2 (1.Application Laboratory (APL)/Research Institute for Value-Added-Information Generation (VAiG)/Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 2.Institute of Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST))

Keywords:Extreme drought , East Africa, Predictability

Many parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short rains season of October–November 2021. It was predicted a few months before by the ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F climate model. The analysis of co-variability of inter-member anomalies has revealed that the 2021 negative Indian Ocean Dipole is responsible to these unusually dry conditions over East Africa. We also showed that a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework is more skillful than the SINTEX-F model at predicting drought in East Africa on longer lead time, which may help people to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce the devastating impact of the drought.