日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会

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[E] 口頭発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-CG 大気海洋・環境科学複合領域・一般

[A-CG34] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Multidecadal Timescales

2022年5月25日(水) 10:45 〜 12:15 201A (幕張メッセ国際会議場)

コンビーナ:森岡 優志(海洋研究開発機構)、コンビーナ:Murakami Hiroyuki(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)、那須野 智江(国立研究開発法人　海洋研究開発機構)、コンビーナ:Zhang Liping(NOAA GFDL Princeton)、Chairperson:Liping Zhang(NOAA GFDL Princeton)、森岡 優志(海洋研究開発機構)


11:00 〜 11:15

[ACG34-08] On the predictability of the extreme drought in East Africa

*土井 威志1、Behera Swadhin1、山形 俊男1,2 (1.JAMSTEC 付加価値情報創生部門　アプリケーションラボ、2. 南京情報科学技術大学 気候応用研究所)

キーワード：極端な干ばつ、東アフリカ、予測可能性

Many parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short rains season of October–November 2021. It was predicted a few months before by the ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F climate model. The analysis of co-variability of inter-member anomalies has revealed that the 2021 negative Indian Ocean Dipole is responsible to these unusually dry conditions over East Africa. We also showed that a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework is more skillful than the SINTEX-F model at predicting drought in East Africa on longer lead time, which may help people to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce the devastating impact of the drought.