14:10 〜 14:25
[ACG40-02] 流動-物質循環-サンゴポリプスケール白化の結合モデルによる石西礁湖のサンゴ白化シミュレーション
キーワード：サンゴの白化現象、2016年、数値シミュレーション、石西礁湖、サンゴポリプモデル
To elucidate the mechanism responsible for coral bleaching and to project the status of coral communities in the future, a coral bleaching model was developed based on a reef-scale three-dimensional hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model coupled with a polyp-scale coral bleaching model.
The polyp-scale bleaching model was developed by incorporating the dynamics of photoinhibition, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and zooxanthella density based on a previously developed coral polyp model by Nakamura et al. (2013). The polyp-scale bleaching model was coupled with reef-scale hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model based on the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System (Warner et al., 2010) with model coupling framework by Nakamura et al. (2018). We also developed a hydrodynamic model of the Sekisei Lagoon area which is down-scaled from the global and regional ocean analysis/reanalysis products by a multi-nested approach based on the COAWST Modeling System, and conducted 26-year (1994 to 2020) high spatiotemporal resolution hindcast simulation in and around the Sekisei Lagoon area (The results are shown here: http://www.nakamulab.mei.titech.ac.jp/yaeyama_hindcast_simulation). Coral bleaching simulation in the Sekisei Lagoon area was conducted based on the Sekisei Lagoon hydrodynamic model with the coral bleaching model.
In 2016, mass-bleaching events had occurred worldwide, and corals in the Sekisei Lagoon had also been heavily damaged through the bleaching event. Therefore, we conducted a bleaching simulation in 2016 and successfully reproduced the mass-bleaching event by this bleaching model. Bleaching simulations were also conducted for the other years, and the results were compared with the observed bleaching ratio in and around the Sekisei Lagoon taken through the Monitoring Sites 1000 project by Ministry of the Environment, Japan. In this result, it is confirmed that the bleaching situation was reasonably reproduced by this bleaching model.
The polyp-scale bleaching model was developed by incorporating the dynamics of photoinhibition, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and zooxanthella density based on a previously developed coral polyp model by Nakamura et al. (2013). The polyp-scale bleaching model was coupled with reef-scale hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model based on the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System (Warner et al., 2010) with model coupling framework by Nakamura et al. (2018). We also developed a hydrodynamic model of the Sekisei Lagoon area which is down-scaled from the global and regional ocean analysis/reanalysis products by a multi-nested approach based on the COAWST Modeling System, and conducted 26-year (1994 to 2020) high spatiotemporal resolution hindcast simulation in and around the Sekisei Lagoon area (The results are shown here: http://www.nakamulab.mei.titech.ac.jp/yaeyama_hindcast_simulation). Coral bleaching simulation in the Sekisei Lagoon area was conducted based on the Sekisei Lagoon hydrodynamic model with the coral bleaching model.
In 2016, mass-bleaching events had occurred worldwide, and corals in the Sekisei Lagoon had also been heavily damaged through the bleaching event. Therefore, we conducted a bleaching simulation in 2016 and successfully reproduced the mass-bleaching event by this bleaching model. Bleaching simulations were also conducted for the other years, and the results were compared with the observed bleaching ratio in and around the Sekisei Lagoon taken through the Monitoring Sites 1000 project by Ministry of the Environment, Japan. In this result, it is confirmed that the bleaching situation was reasonably reproduced by this bleaching model.