[A-CG43] Science in the Arctic Region

[ACG43-03] Contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and multidecadal internal variability to mid-20th century Arctic cooling

*Takuro Aizawa^1,2, Naga Oshima², Seiji Yukimoto² (1.National Institute of Polar Research, 2.Meteorological Research Institute)

Keywords:Arctic cooling, Anthropogenic aerosol , Multidecadal internal variability, Climate model, Multimodel analysis, Arctic warming

In the Arctic, observed decadal mean surface air temperatures (SATs) were 0.70°C–0.95°C lower around 1970 than those around 1940. The 35-multimodel ensemble mean of historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibited Arctic surface cooling trend in 1940–1970, which could be attributed to external forcings. Multimodel ensemble means of CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) historical simulations exhibited Arctic surface cooling of −0.22°C (±0.24°C) in 1970 versus 1940 and showed that anthropogenic aerosol forcings contributed to a cooling of −0.65°C (±0.37°C), which was partially offset by a warming of 0.44°C (±0.22°C) due to well-mixed greenhouse gases. In addition to the anthropogenic aerosol forcings, multidecadal internal variability with a magnitude of 0.47°C was the component primarily contributing to the observed Arctic cooling. We identified a spatial pattern of pan-Arctic multidecadal cooling due to the internal variability that resembles the 1940–1970 cooling pattern. As anthropogenic sulfur emissions and sulfate aerosols will decrease in any future scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), Arctic warming will continue over the near-term future even under strong cooling fluctuations generated by internal variability.