[A-OS15] Waves, Storm Surges, and Related Hazards

[AOS15-01] Numerical Modeling of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Extreme Wind Wave Runup on Beaches and Dunes

*Reza Marsooli¹、Mohammad Jamous¹ (1.Stevens Institute of Technology)

キーワード：wave runup, sea level rise, climate change, New Jersey

Sand dunes and beaches are the major means of coastal flood protection in many regions worldwide. However, these measures are susceptible to wave attack, erosion, and failure during coastal storms. The vulnerability of beaches and dunes to wave hazards could increase in a warmer climate, given that sea level rise will result in deeper water depths in the present-day surf zone, allowing larger waves to reach the shoreline and potentially increase coastal flood risks due to wave runup and overtopping. To understand the resilience of coastal communities to climate change, it is necessary to quantitively understand the extent to which sea level rise influences wave hazards. This study adopts a physics-based modeling framework to quantify the effects of sea level rise on wave runup on beaches and dunes. The study area is located on a barrier island in the state of New Jersey in the United States. The modeling approach consists of a set of hydrodynamic, wave, and morphodynamic models including: the ADCIRC+SWAN model to simulate storm surge and statistical properties of wind waves at a regional scale, the Xbeach-surfbeat model to simulate morphological changes of beaches and dunes during extreme events, and the XBeach-nonhydrostatic model to simulate wave runup in the study area. The models are applied to a historical storm event, Hurricane Sandy, under various scenarios of future sea level rise. Results are presented and discussed.