[H-CG26] 気候変動への適応とその社会実装

[HCG26-03] Socioeconomic scenarios for S-18 project research

*吉川 沙耶花¹、三村 信男¹ (1.茨城大学)

キーワード：気候変動、共通社会経済経路、人口、土地利用/土地被覆

Climate change is one of the greatest long-term challenges facing humanity. In the prediction of climate change impacts, scenarios based on assumptions about future conditions are commonly used. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are widely employed as socioeconomic scenarios for future global-scale predictions. SSPs provide future projections of population and gross domestic product for each of five regions worldwide. However, the SSPs are not suitable for detailed assessment in Japan, as they include only information for five major regions. To meet one of the S-18 project goals of nationally unified prediction of climate change impacts across multiple sectors in Japan, we established common socioeconomic scenarios designated the JapanSSP1, JapanSSP5, and Status quo scenarios based on a literature review. JapanSSP1 and JapanSSP5 are based on qualitative links to global SSPs, characterized by sustainable development and fossil fuel usage. The Status quo scenario assumes no change in the future from current conditions in Japan. Moreover, we provide a common dataset of population and land use under these scenarios. The population data were obtained from existing population projections, and the land use data were estimated according to population changes and current land use classification. Here, we detail the dataset prepared for S-18 project research and discuss possibilities for its improvement.