[H-CG26] Adaptation to climate change and its social implementation

[HCG26-P03] Uncertainty Investigation of Multi-Hydrological Models in Ethiopia

*Katsuya Akahira¹, KOJI DAIRAKU¹, Ermias Sisay Brhane¹ (1.University of Tsukuba)

Keywords:Hydrological Model, Uncertainty Investigation, Ethiopia

With the 6th IPCC report, the establishment of the TCFD, the need and pressure to combat climate change is increasing every year. In response to this trend, the use of renewable energy is being promoted. Among them, hydropower is superior in terms of low cost and high self-sufficiency. It plays an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and is highly sensitive to climate change. Many countries in the African monsoon region depend on hydropower, and since the demand for electricity will increase in the future, predictions of the impact are required. However, the number of studies on the impact of climate change on hydropower generation in these regions without sufficient observational data is small, and the uncertainty is large. In this research, two hydrological models and three meteorological data sets were used to compare the simulated discharge among the models and data sets for the decade (2000-2009) in the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. The results show that the discrepancy between the observed and simulated discharges is large during the peak discharge periods for both models and datasets. The results show that both models and datasets simulations were able to reproduce the seasonal variability well, but the runoff volumes differed significantly. This may be due to the way the data is applied, processed, and accurate. The results suggest the importance of investigation of multi-observed data and multi-models for assessment of climate change impacts on hydropower generation in an ungauged basin.