[M-IS01] Environmental, Socio-Economic and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS01-05] Relative contributions of climatic change and socioeconomic trends on primary productivity in Kazakhstan and Mongolia

*Ranjeet John^1,2, Jiquan Chen^3,4, Venkatesh Kolluru², Reza Goljani-Amirkhiz¹, Vincenzo Giannico⁵, Jing Yuan⁴ (1.Department of Biology, University of South Dakota, 2.Department of Sustainability and Environment, University of South Dakota, 3.Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, 4.Center for Global Change & Earth Observations, Michigan State University, 5.Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Bari A. Moro)

Keywords:Net primary productivity, Structural equation modeling, Livestock density, socioeconomic, soil moisture, vegetation optical depth

We examine the interconnectivity of food, energy and water (FEW), as well as the dynamics and rapid changes in the moisture and temperature regimes intensified land use in Kazakhstan (KZ) and Mongolia (MG) over a 20-year period (2000-2020). Net primary production, evapotranspiration, snow cover and soil moisture were used as the key indicators for food production, radiation energy, and water balance, respectively, of the rangelands that support continued increases in economies, livestock, agriculture, and human development. Our premise is that the interconnections and interdependencies of FEW measures vary significantly between KZ and MG, among the provinces within each country. Structural Equation Models (SEM) was used as our primary tool to model complex interrelationships between a suite of remote sensing products and socioeconomic databases. Provinces from each country were studied as the sampling units for SEM. We also identified hotspots of change and significant trends in vegetation indices, NPP, ET and percent snow cover over the past two decades (2000-2020). Grassland degradation and vegetation stress was explained by proximity to towns and cities. Findings show land cover conversions occurs mostly in cropland and grassland but with different rates among provinces. Changes in area of grassland and cropland disproportionally contributed to changes in ET/GPP.