[M-IS10] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

[MIS10-01] Identification of pre-earthquake atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and their regional features

*Dimitar Ouzounov¹、Sergey A Pulinets²、Jann-Yenq Tiger Liu³、Katsumi Hattori⁴、Menas Kafatos¹、Patrick Taylor⁵ (1.Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) , Schmid College of Science & Technology Chapman University, Orange, California, USA、2.Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Science、3.National Central University、4.Graduate School of Science, Chiba University、5.GSFC, NASA)

キーワード：pre-earthquake atmospheric anomaly, pre-earthquake a ionospheric anomaly, Molchan Error Diagram

Space and ground observations have shown that there are pre-earthquake atmospheric thermal and ionospheric signals related to major (M>6) over the region of high seismicity (Japan, Taiwan). We still need to understand the spatiotemporal characteristics of pre-earthquake phenomena and their spatial distribution. In this study, we explore the Thermal Radiation Anomalies (TRA), Global Ionospheric Map /Total electron Contents (GIM/TEC), and Seismo-Ionospheric Anomalies (SIA) over Kamchatka (Russia), Japan, Taiwan, and Greece; seismic regions in the retrospective mode for the period of 2008-2020 for major seismicity (M>6). We use Molchan Error Diagram (MED) as a statistical evaluation tool based on different physical statistics. We found some spatial-temporal and regional dependency of TRA and SIA statistics (in days) for each region and some common features for all. In cases where a transition was made from a single satellite measurement to multi-parameter measurements, it was possible to ensure reliability by reducing the level of false alarms and enriching the physical completeness of the observed phenomenon.
MED shows that TRA and GIM/TEC SIA statistics over Kamchatka, Japan, Taiwan, and Greece for M>6 from 2008 to 2020 are better than the random guessing. This suggests that physically based pre-earthquake TRA and SIA over the tested regions are common and can provide additional short-term information for the earthquake processes.