Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022

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[E] Oral

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS10] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

Sun. May 22, 2022 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM 101 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Katsumi Hattori(Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University), convener:Jann-Yenq LIU(Department of Space Science and Engineering, National Central University, Taiwan), Dimitar Ouzounov(Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) , Schmid College of Science & Technology Chapman University, Orange, California, USA), convener:Qinghua Huang(Peking University), Chairperson:Katsumi Hattori(Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University), Dimitar Ouzounov(Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) , Schmid College of Science & Technology Chapman University, Orange, California, USA)

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[MIS10-05] Point-process modelling of earthquakes incorporating ULF seismo-magnetic anomalies

★Invited Papers

*Peng Han1, Hongyan Chen1, Jiancang Zhuang2, Katsumi Hattori3 (1.Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China, 2.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 3.Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan)

Keywords:Earthquake modelling, ULF seismo-magnetic data, Point process

An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate, which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Using the point-process model above, we analyzed the correlation between the occurrence times of the anomalies in magnetic records at the Kakioka station and the M>=4.0 earthquakes within 100km from the station. We found that the magnetic signals at this station exhibit a weak explanatory effect for the occurrence of nearby earthquakes, more significant for large events, up to an average probability gain of 1.40 for events of magnitude 5.0+ against the ETAS model.