[M-IS10] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

[MIS10-05] Point-process modelling of earthquakes incorporating ULF seismo-magnetic anomalies

★Invited Papers

*Peng Han¹、Hongyan Chen¹、Jiancang Zhuang²、Katsumi Hattori³ (1.Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China、2.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan、3.Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan)

キーワード：Earthquake modelling, ULF seismo-magnetic data, Point process

An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate, which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Using the point-process model above, we analyzed the correlation between the occurrence times of the anomalies in magnetic records at the Kakioka station and the M>=4.0 earthquakes within 100km from the station. We found that the magnetic signals at this station exhibit a weak explanatory effect for the occurrence of nearby earthquakes, more significant for large events, up to an average probability gain of 1.40 for events of magnitude 5.0+ against the ETAS model.