日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会

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[E] ポスター発表

セッション記号 M (領域外・複数領域) » M-IS ジョイント

[M-IS10] Interdisciplinary studies on pre-earthquake processes

2022年5月30日(月) 11:00 〜 13:00 オンラインポスターZoom会場 (31) (Ch.31)

コンビーナ:服部 克巳(千葉大学大学院理学研究科)、コンビーナ:劉 正彦(国立中央大学太空科学研究所)、Ouzounov Dimitar(Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) , Schmid College of Science & Technology Chapman University, Orange, California, USA)、コンビーナ:Huang Qinghua(Peking University)、座長:服部 克巳(千葉大学大学院理学研究科)、Ouzounov Dimitar(Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations (CEESMO) , Schmid College of Science & Technology Chapman University, Orange, California, USA)、劉 正彦(国立中央大学太空科学研究所)、韓 鵬(南方科技大学)

11:00 〜 13:00

[MIS10-P08] Research on the Applicability of Bath's Law in Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China

*Yi Zhong1、Rui Wang1、Yi Chang1、Miao Miao1、Xiaofei Chen1、Peng Han1 (1.Southern University of Science and Technology, China)

キーワード：Bath's law, Mc, ETAS model, the maximum aftershock

The maximum magnitude of the aftershock after a large earthquake is related to the deployment and rescue work, and the maximum aftershock magnitude difference follows the Bath's law, that is, the maximum aftershock magnitude is about 1.2 lower than the corresponding mainshock. Since Bath's law may have different forms in different regions, this study is based on the earthquake catalog of the Sichuan-Yunnan region from 1970 to 2018 before and after the M≧6.5 earthquake to investigate the applicability of the Bath law in the Sichuan-Yunnan region; at the same time, through Yujin The Heguankou empirical formula and Time-ETAS model earthquakes and aftershock activities. The results show that the correlation between the magnitude of the main shock and the magnitude of the aftershocks in the Sichuan-Yunnan area is weak and doesn't conform to Bath's law in general; When only seismic events on a single fault are considered, Bath's law can be applied after modification; Under this premise, The magnitude difference between the main shocks and aftershocks in Bath's law can be explained by seismic phase diagrams; In complicated structural zone, double shocks are more likely to occur, and earthquake risk prediction needs to be carefully estimated.