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[MZZ48-04] Capacity allocation of future photovoltaic power generation between distribution areas based on municipality statistical data
Keywords:photovoltaic power generation, distribution network, potential
1. Introduction
In order to construct the de-carbonized society, several-hundred GW of photovoltaic power generation (PV) needs be installed to Japanese power systems. In such situation, the power flow in transmission and distribution networks would be largely different compared to the existing power flow. In many of rural areas, installed capacity of PV (PV capacity) will be larger than the electricity demand because of their low population density. This leads to the reinforcement of thermal capacity of distribution lines and substations. Battery energy systems or production of hydrogen would also be necessary.
To tackle the future power system problems of distribution areas (DAs) quantitatively, allocation of the future PV capacity between DAs is one of the most important factors. Therefore, this paper proposes a future PV allocation scenario in each DA. This paper calculates the PV capacity on municipalities with municipality-basis datasets and allocate the capacity to each DA.
II. Potential calculation
The research target is the Chubu region in Japan. The total PV capacity in Chubu is assumed to 45 GW, which corresponds to almost 300 GW in Japan. Firstly, PV installation potential in 2050 is calculated of each category in each municipality. 7 categories are considered with PV capacity per each index; newly build detached house (5.0 kW/house), newly build apartment house (1.6 kW/household), existing detached house (4.0 kW/house), existing apartment house (1.0 kW/house), factory rooftop (0.50 MW/ha), solar sharing (0.195 MW/ha), Abandoned farmland (0.50 MW/ha).
“Newly build house” represents houses built from 2020 to 2050. Numbers of houses by type of buildings in each municipality are obtained from “Housing and Land Survey in Japan”. The number of existing detached and apartment houses are calculated by multiplying 40% to the statistical house number. The number of newly build detached houses is calculated using “Statistics on Building Construction Started” with the decline of 2.2% per year. The number of newly build apartment houses is calculated by subtracting the house numbers in other categories from the household numbers in 2050.
The area of roof of factories are calculated with the building area in “Census of Manufacture”. For solar sharing and abandoned farmland, the area of operating cultivated land and of abandoned land in “Census of Agriculture and Forestry” are used for the potential calculation.
As a result, total potential in Chubu is 88.7 GW and almost half (43.9 GW) is the potential of solar sharing.
III. Allocation to municipalities
After the PV installation potential calculation, usage ratio is determined for each category to make the total PV capacity 45 GW. Usage ratio of the newly build detached house is set to 1.0. The usage ratio of abandoned land is limited to 60% based on the hazard map analysis in Yaotsu-chou. The usage ratio of solar sharing is set to smallest, 0.34, considering relative high cost to make.
As a result of allocation, totally 13.6 GW are allocated to house rooftop PV, 2.5 GW are to factories rooftop PV, 14.6 GW are to “solar sharing” and 14.4 GW are to abandoned farmland, respectively.
IV. Allocation to distribution areas (DAs)
PV capacity of each municipality is allocated to their overlapped DAs. Rooftop PVs are allocated with proportional to the number of households in 2050. Half of PVs of solar sharing and at abandoned farmland are also allocated with proportional to 2050 household number, and rest of them are allocated with proportional to the area of the DAs.
Attached figure shows the allocated PV capacity in each DA in Aichi. Even in Aichi, more than 100 MW of PV will be installed in some DAs while the typical DA capacity is from 20 to 50 MW. Many of such DAs are either sub-urban areas with much farmland or rural areas with much farmland and abandoned farmland.
Using this allocation, future power supply and demand in each DA will be analyzed from the viewpoint of surplus energy etc..
In order to construct the de-carbonized society, several-hundred GW of photovoltaic power generation (PV) needs be installed to Japanese power systems. In such situation, the power flow in transmission and distribution networks would be largely different compared to the existing power flow. In many of rural areas, installed capacity of PV (PV capacity) will be larger than the electricity demand because of their low population density. This leads to the reinforcement of thermal capacity of distribution lines and substations. Battery energy systems or production of hydrogen would also be necessary.
To tackle the future power system problems of distribution areas (DAs) quantitatively, allocation of the future PV capacity between DAs is one of the most important factors. Therefore, this paper proposes a future PV allocation scenario in each DA. This paper calculates the PV capacity on municipalities with municipality-basis datasets and allocate the capacity to each DA.
II. Potential calculation
The research target is the Chubu region in Japan. The total PV capacity in Chubu is assumed to 45 GW, which corresponds to almost 300 GW in Japan. Firstly, PV installation potential in 2050 is calculated of each category in each municipality. 7 categories are considered with PV capacity per each index; newly build detached house (5.0 kW/house), newly build apartment house (1.6 kW/household), existing detached house (4.0 kW/house), existing apartment house (1.0 kW/house), factory rooftop (0.50 MW/ha), solar sharing (0.195 MW/ha), Abandoned farmland (0.50 MW/ha).
“Newly build house” represents houses built from 2020 to 2050. Numbers of houses by type of buildings in each municipality are obtained from “Housing and Land Survey in Japan”. The number of existing detached and apartment houses are calculated by multiplying 40% to the statistical house number. The number of newly build detached houses is calculated using “Statistics on Building Construction Started” with the decline of 2.2% per year. The number of newly build apartment houses is calculated by subtracting the house numbers in other categories from the household numbers in 2050.
The area of roof of factories are calculated with the building area in “Census of Manufacture”. For solar sharing and abandoned farmland, the area of operating cultivated land and of abandoned land in “Census of Agriculture and Forestry” are used for the potential calculation.
As a result, total potential in Chubu is 88.7 GW and almost half (43.9 GW) is the potential of solar sharing.
III. Allocation to municipalities
After the PV installation potential calculation, usage ratio is determined for each category to make the total PV capacity 45 GW. Usage ratio of the newly build detached house is set to 1.0. The usage ratio of abandoned land is limited to 60% based on the hazard map analysis in Yaotsu-chou. The usage ratio of solar sharing is set to smallest, 0.34, considering relative high cost to make.
As a result of allocation, totally 13.6 GW are allocated to house rooftop PV, 2.5 GW are to factories rooftop PV, 14.6 GW are to “solar sharing” and 14.4 GW are to abandoned farmland, respectively.
IV. Allocation to distribution areas (DAs)
PV capacity of each municipality is allocated to their overlapped DAs. Rooftop PVs are allocated with proportional to the number of households in 2050. Half of PVs of solar sharing and at abandoned farmland are also allocated with proportional to 2050 household number, and rest of them are allocated with proportional to the area of the DAs.
Attached figure shows the allocated PV capacity in each DA in Aichi. Even in Aichi, more than 100 MW of PV will be installed in some DAs while the typical DA capacity is from 20 to 50 MW. Many of such DAs are either sub-urban areas with much farmland or rural areas with much farmland and abandoned farmland.
Using this allocation, future power supply and demand in each DA will be analyzed from the viewpoint of surplus energy etc..