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[MZZ48-P08] Problems in predicting solar power output in winter and snow monitoring on photovoltaic power system
Keywords:photovoltaic power generation, snow accumulation, prediction of power generation
While more and more solar power systems are being installed in Japan, information on power output forecasting has become essential to balance the supply and demand of electricity. Since the output of photovoltaic (PV) power generation fluctuates greatly depending on the weather, the development of technology for power output forecasting using weather forecasting technology has been promoted.
In addition, in northern Japan and areas along the Sea of Japan, there is snowfall in the winter, which also accumulates on PV power generation systems. As a result, even when the weather clears up after the snowfall, the solar power output may not increase because the snowfall blocks the solar irradiance. PV power output predictions that only take weather conditions into account will overestimate power output because snow accumulation is not taken into account, and the actual power output will be low, which may lead to power shortages. Therefore, it is important to model the PV power output prediction with sufficient consideration of snow cover.
In this study, we start to monitor snow accumulation, analyze the process of snow accumulation, melting, and snow fall on a PV power system, and model the prediction of PV power output under snow accumulation. The observation system for meteorological measurement, cloud and snow monitoring was constructed and monitoring was started at the "Wine-no-sato Ikeda Solar Power Plant", a mega solar power plant site owned by Hokuden Eco Energy Co., Inc. In this presentation, we will introduce an actual snow cover case and report the results of our investigation of the dynamics of snow cover on the PV system.
In addition, in northern Japan and areas along the Sea of Japan, there is snowfall in the winter, which also accumulates on PV power generation systems. As a result, even when the weather clears up after the snowfall, the solar power output may not increase because the snowfall blocks the solar irradiance. PV power output predictions that only take weather conditions into account will overestimate power output because snow accumulation is not taken into account, and the actual power output will be low, which may lead to power shortages. Therefore, it is important to model the PV power output prediction with sufficient consideration of snow cover.
In this study, we start to monitor snow accumulation, analyze the process of snow accumulation, melting, and snow fall on a PV power system, and model the prediction of PV power output under snow accumulation. The observation system for meteorological measurement, cloud and snow monitoring was constructed and monitoring was started at the "Wine-no-sato Ikeda Solar Power Plant", a mega solar power plant site owned by Hokuden Eco Energy Co., Inc. In this presentation, we will introduce an actual snow cover case and report the results of our investigation of the dynamics of snow cover on the PV system.