Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022

Presentation information

[J] Poster

S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS09] Earthquake prediction and forecast

Mon. May 30, 2022 11:00 AM - 1:00 PM Online Poster Zoom Room (17) (Ch.17)

convener:Shingo Watada(Division of Monitoring Science, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo), convener:Masayuki Obayashi(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Chairperson:Haritha Chandriyan(Department of Geology and Geophysics, IIT Kharagpur, West bengal, India.)

11:00 AM - 1:00 PM

[SSS09-P02] Without Knowing Origin of Plate Tectonics, we cannot talk about Mechanism of Huge EarthQuake,and Occurrence of Huge EarthQuake cannot be predicted without knowing Driving Force of Plate. S-SS09⇒M-IS05

*Akira Taneko1 (1.SEED SCIENCE Lab.)

Keywords:Origin of Plate Tectonics, Plate Driving Force ⇒ Rotational Moment that minimizes Moment of Inertia, Multi-Impact H. is Origin H. of Moon ⇒ Origin H. of Plate Tectonics and Driving Force, Verification of Origin can explain All Results of Evolution in a unified and consistent manner ⇒ The Most Truthful, A huge earthquake occurs at the submerged position of the plate, Comparison of Accumulated Moment Energy and Rupture Strength for each plate is useful for Earthquake Prediction

In order to predict Large Earthquake, it is important not only to infer from Observation Records but also to examine Theory from Origin of Earth.

From Observation Results and Plate Tectonics, Most of them occur at Plate Boundary Position such as Pacific Rim arc Archipelago. However, Plate Tectonics cannot explain why it became Plate Boundary. This is Limit of Heat Convection Hypothesis.

Multi-Impact Hypothesis is Origin Hypothesis of Moon, but not only Origin of Moon, but also Origin of Seven Seas of Earth, Origin of Plate Tectonics and Driving Force, Origin of Earth Axis Inclination, Origin of Life, Origin of Great Extinction of Species, and Size of Jupiter. We could explain Origin of Great Red Spot, Origin of Asteroid Belt, Origin of Mercury CoaRrich, Origin of the Mantle of Meiou, Origin of Rock Accumulation of Asteroid, and Origin of Diamond Mine.
Origin of Solar System can explain Evolutionary Results consistently and uniformly, and can be verified by Logic that Hypothetical Model is the closest to Truth.

Impactor is a Moon-Sized Fragment of Mantle only, Crater of Earth is Pacific Ocean (Isostacy ⇒ 4 km Depth) at Time of Earth Collision, Crack of Earth is Origin of Plate Boundary, Ejected Mantle is Origin of Eccentric Moon, Drive Force minimizes Earth Eccentric Inertia Moment, Convex Plate sneaks under Concave Plate due to Depression of Surrounding Plate at Beginning of Plate OverLap, and it is also Origin of the Geomagnetic Anomaly due to Core Eccentricity. High-Latitude Collisions are Origin of Tilt of Earth's Axis and Origin of Sudden Canges in Direction of Plate Movement.

Huge Earthquake occurs at Submerged Position of Plate, and it occurs alternately and periodically at Trapped Position of Pacific Rim Arcuate Archipelago, etc., and releases Energy. Huge Earthquake occurs at Submerged Position of Plate, and it occurs alternately and periodically at Trapped Position of Pacific Rim Arcuate Archipelago, etc., and releases Energy.Fracture occurs at a position where Energy Storage of Huge Earthquake exceeds Limit, and load on Other Places Accumulates, and it is predicted that it will be released at Another Position. It is Accumulation of Rotation Moment Stress, not Thermal Convection.
Alaska Earthquake (1964), Sumatra Island Offshore Earthquake (2004), Samoa Offshore Earthquake (2009), Tohoku Region Pacific Ocean Offshore Earthquake (2011), Okhotsk Sea Deep Earthquake (2013), etc ... Time chart and Accumulated Moment Energy can be evaluated with.Stored Eenergy cannot be evaluated by Heat Convection.

Science is important to deal with Causes and Effects. It is impossible to predict with a Thermal Convection Model that has not explained Origin of Plate Tectonics.Comparison of Accumulated Moment Energy and Rupture Strength forEach Plate is useful for Earthquake Prediction. Epicenter Position and Time are unpredictable by Stress Measurement. Cause cannot be reached by Heat Convection Theory. Releasing Stress at one Location corresponds to increasing Stress at Another Location. Position of Occurrence is predicted by Peripheral Stress Moment Hypothesis, and Timing is predicted by Stress Measurement.