09:00 〜 09:15
[SSS11-01] The research and application of the spherical space-time ETAS model
The widely used space-time ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model was developed by Ogata (1998). This model successfully explains foreshocks and high order aftershocks in earthquake sequences and provides a very effective tool for seismic activity analysis.
However, this space-time ETAS model is only suitable for the study within a small space range. When the space range is large, since the earth is a sphere, the simulation results of the model will produce errors. In this study, we reformulate the model from its planar version to a spherical version, to analyze and forecast global seismicity or seismicity in high latitude regions.
The new model is verified by applying it to the global CMT catalog. The results show that the new model can simulate the global seismicity variation well. It provides support for better modeling of seismic activities and seismic interactions in global regions. We also calculate the seismicity rates of the seismicity belt along the western Pacific coast to further analyze the characteristics of earthquake sequences.
However, this space-time ETAS model is only suitable for the study within a small space range. When the space range is large, since the earth is a sphere, the simulation results of the model will produce errors. In this study, we reformulate the model from its planar version to a spherical version, to analyze and forecast global seismicity or seismicity in high latitude regions.
The new model is verified by applying it to the global CMT catalog. The results show that the new model can simulate the global seismicity variation well. It provides support for better modeling of seismic activities and seismic interactions in global regions. We also calculate the seismicity rates of the seismicity belt along the western Pacific coast to further analyze the characteristics of earthquake sequences.