11:00 AM - 1:00 PM
[SVC30-P01] Research on Observation Method of Volcanic Ash Accumulation Using Spaceborne SAR: Estimation of Distal Volcanic Ash-fall Distribution by Numerical Simulation
Keywords:SAR, ATM, SIP
As already reported in this session (Ozawa and Fujita, 2019, 2020), the observation method of volcanic ash accumulation using spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has been researched in Theme II of Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP) Second Phase (FY2018-2022). We report an estimation method of distal volcanic ash-fall distribution by numerical simulation using atmospheric transport model (ATM) from proximal isopach line extracted by decorrelation of interferometric SAR.
In this method, to prepare the initial condition of ATM, short-range simulations are preliminary executed with several eruption source parameters (ESPs). Next, optimum ESP is selected based on a comparison between the preliminary simulations and the isopach line observed by SAR. Finally, long-range simulation is executed with the selected ESP. As an atmospheric field, initial grid-point values (GPVs) of the Japan Meteorological Agency's local forecast model (JMA's LFM), which are converted to NetCDF in Theme V of SIP Second Phase, input. ESP is set with reference to Suzuki (1983) and ATM is used the JMA-ATM (Shimbori and Ishii, 2021) which is the operational model of JMA's volcanic ash fall forecasts. The output format is CSV for SIP.
Estimated distal volcanic ash-fall distribution in this simulation is not a prediction but a post hoc analysis. Since many research problems are left in how to use ESP and GPV, this estimation is an approximate analysis. Reset ESP to a dynamic model such as NIKS-1D (Ishii et al., 2021) or input of GPV made in SIP First Phase (Shimose et al., 2017) are future research.
References
Ishii, K., A. Nishijo and T. Koyaguchi, 2021: Development of eruptive column model in JMA tephra dispersal prediction. Proc. Volcanol. Soc. Japan, 35.
Ozawa, T. and E. Fujita, 2019: Research on observation method of volcanic ash-fall accumulation using spaceborne SAR. Proc. JpGU Meeting, SVC35-P04.
Ozawa, T. and E. Fujita, 2020: Research on observation method of volcanic ash accumulation using spaceborne SAR: Quantitative extraction of decorrelation by volcanic ash-fall. Proc. JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting, SVC46-P01.
Shimbori, T. and K. Ishii, 2021: Design of the Japan Meteorological Agency atmospheric transport model. Tech. Rep. MRI, 84, 146 p.
Shimose, K., S. Shimizu, R. Kato and K. Iwanami, 2017: Analysis of the 6 September 2015 tornadic storm around the Tokyo Metropolitan area using coupled 3DVAR and incremental analysis updates. J. Disaster Res., 12, 956-966.
Suzuki, T., 1983: A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra: Arc Volcanism. TERRAPUB, pp. 95-113.
In this method, to prepare the initial condition of ATM, short-range simulations are preliminary executed with several eruption source parameters (ESPs). Next, optimum ESP is selected based on a comparison between the preliminary simulations and the isopach line observed by SAR. Finally, long-range simulation is executed with the selected ESP. As an atmospheric field, initial grid-point values (GPVs) of the Japan Meteorological Agency's local forecast model (JMA's LFM), which are converted to NetCDF in Theme V of SIP Second Phase, input. ESP is set with reference to Suzuki (1983) and ATM is used the JMA-ATM (Shimbori and Ishii, 2021) which is the operational model of JMA's volcanic ash fall forecasts. The output format is CSV for SIP.
Estimated distal volcanic ash-fall distribution in this simulation is not a prediction but a post hoc analysis. Since many research problems are left in how to use ESP and GPV, this estimation is an approximate analysis. Reset ESP to a dynamic model such as NIKS-1D (Ishii et al., 2021) or input of GPV made in SIP First Phase (Shimose et al., 2017) are future research.
References
Ishii, K., A. Nishijo and T. Koyaguchi, 2021: Development of eruptive column model in JMA tephra dispersal prediction. Proc. Volcanol. Soc. Japan, 35.
Ozawa, T. and E. Fujita, 2019: Research on observation method of volcanic ash-fall accumulation using spaceborne SAR. Proc. JpGU Meeting, SVC35-P04.
Ozawa, T. and E. Fujita, 2020: Research on observation method of volcanic ash accumulation using spaceborne SAR: Quantitative extraction of decorrelation by volcanic ash-fall. Proc. JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting, SVC46-P01.
Shimbori, T. and K. Ishii, 2021: Design of the Japan Meteorological Agency atmospheric transport model. Tech. Rep. MRI, 84, 146 p.
Shimose, K., S. Shimizu, R. Kato and K. Iwanami, 2017: Analysis of the 6 September 2015 tornadic storm around the Tokyo Metropolitan area using coupled 3DVAR and incremental analysis updates. J. Disaster Res., 12, 956-966.
Suzuki, T., 1983: A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra: Arc Volcanism. TERRAPUB, pp. 95-113.