11:00 AM - 1:00 PM
[SVC34-P02] Introduction of VAAC Tokyo's operation, and requirements of technology for operation in the future
Keywords:Volcanic Ash, remote sensing, Atmospheric Transport Model, VAA
Volcanic ash can be hazardous for aircraft. When a jet engine ingests volcanic ash, it melts at a high temperature in the combustion chamber, goes downstream and adheres to turbine blades after being cooled in a high-pressure turbine chamber. This may cause engine failure. In addition, volcanic ash can obstruct visibility due to the "frosted" windshield, and cause malfunction of air velocity gauges. For this reason, aircraft must avoid volcanic ash. In cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established a framework for "International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW)" and designated nine "Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)" around the world. VAACs are responsible for 24/7 watch of volcanic ash and issuance of Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) was designated as VAAC Tokyo and started its operation in 1997. VAAC Tokyo's area of responsibility covers East Asia, the Northwest Pacific region and a part of the Arctic circle.
The current VAA predicts the areas of volcanic ash up to 18 hours ahead in a deterministic manner and provides 2-D graphical information surrounding them. However, after the heavy air traffic disruption in Europe caused by the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption in Iceland, it has become required for VAACs to provide quantitative volcanic ash information for aviation efficiency. It was agreed in the ICAO Meteorology Panel Fifth meeting in June 2021 that a 3-D quantitative volcanic ash forecast and probability information should be provided in the future. In this information, thresholds of volcanic ash concentration are to be determined in accordance with the impact on the aircraft engine. The information will be provided with relative frequency of exceedance probabilities for the volcanic ash concentration thresholds. However, there are many technical challenges to overcome. For example, it is challenging to observe the internal structure of volcanic ash clouds for model initialization. In this presentation, I will introduce the VAAC Tokyo's operation and the methods we use. I would also like to discuss the current international requirements and consider the observation and prediction technologies required to achieve these requirements.
The current VAA predicts the areas of volcanic ash up to 18 hours ahead in a deterministic manner and provides 2-D graphical information surrounding them. However, after the heavy air traffic disruption in Europe caused by the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption in Iceland, it has become required for VAACs to provide quantitative volcanic ash information for aviation efficiency. It was agreed in the ICAO Meteorology Panel Fifth meeting in June 2021 that a 3-D quantitative volcanic ash forecast and probability information should be provided in the future. In this information, thresholds of volcanic ash concentration are to be determined in accordance with the impact on the aircraft engine. The information will be provided with relative frequency of exceedance probabilities for the volcanic ash concentration thresholds. However, there are many technical challenges to overcome. For example, it is challenging to observe the internal structure of volcanic ash clouds for model initialization. In this presentation, I will introduce the VAAC Tokyo's operation and the methods we use. I would also like to discuss the current international requirements and consider the observation and prediction technologies required to achieve these requirements.