[U-10] 地球規模環境変化の予測と検出

[U10-01] 予測データ作成者とユーザの間の架け橋について

★招待講演

*高薮 出¹ (1.気象庁気象研究所)

キーワード：国連気候変動に関する政府間パネル、統合的気候モデル高度化研究プロジェクト、気候ハザード、気候適応

Here we try to review the process of handshaking between producers and users of climate projection data. There are at laest three kinds of actors. They are (i) climate projection researchers, (ii) climate impact study researshcers, and (iii) end users or local governments, who formulate plans for climate change adaptaion around their own counties. (i) Climate projection researchers could only produce information of climate hazards. (ii) Impact study researchers add information of exosure and vulnerability to it, and produce much more user orient information. And finally, (iii) local government assessed climate risk from the information produced by the impact study researchers. How to make the flow of information or knowledge from (i) to (iii) smoothly is a serious issue for those communities. Internationally, IPCC WG1 (The Physical Basis) AR6report also strongly recommended to handshake with WG2 (Impacts, Adaptaion and Vulnerability) and WG3 (Mitigation of climate change). For examples in Chapter 12 of WG1 (Climate change information for regional impact for risk assessment), they conncet sectors of adaptaion in WG2 with Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) defined in WG1, which are mean and extreme values of many weather and oceanic issues, like surface temperature, precipitaion, droughts, wind and stroms, snow and ice etc. They are all controlled by anthropogenic climate change. However, it looks only the starting point of utilize those CIDs. With support of Ministry of Environment (MoE) and The Center for Climate Change Adaptaion (CCCA), we have discussed on the way how to overtake the gap between the communities of climate projeciton, impact assesssment, and end users. As a solution, collaboration among these communities is more important. Specifically, results demonstrate the neccessity of improving mutual information exchnage and coordination before the information is created, and of developing institutions and facilitates for realizing better exchange. Thus, interdisciplinary action is welcomed. We introduce an example of such interdisciplinary research done in Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) (supported by MEXT). Climate researchers and hydrologists co-work and make climate information for decision makers in the project.